# The Future of the Plumbing Trade



## OldSchool (Jan 30, 2010)

When I was younger and doing this trade…. I though that eventually once all the new building was done and systems upgraded that eventually there would be a lack of work in this trade….

Well I was wrong….. There is more work in this trade now than ever before…

The growing population along with the lack of quality of plumbing and heating equipment has made this into a never ending cycle of future plumbing work for generations to come.

Take boilers for example….. these old beast would be still be in place and operating well pass the 60 year mark if there wasn’t a push for efficiency.

Now will a new boiler last 60 plus years…. Will be lucky just to get over the 10 plus year mark… for sure replacement in 20 years…

Another example HWT… back in the day we had stone lined cascade 40 HWT…. These tanks went well over the 30 year mark…. Today… lucky if you get 10 years…

Another example faucets…… most of the old faucets would last 30 to 40 years… today they fall apart in less than 10 years….


So I would say don’t worry about the future of plumbing…. There will be more work than there was a long time ago… the future is bright from a job stand point..


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## PlumberJake (Nov 15, 2010)

I was talking to my dad yesterday about this. Before he went out for a repair on a 5 year old faucet, the customer suggested he just bring a new one. It seems that in the next decade or so, faucet repair will be rare. The junk they manufacture will just need to be replaced if it develops a leak.

Sent from my EVO 4G using Plumbing Zone


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## user2090 (Sep 26, 2009)

Couldn't agree with you more, Oldschool. I have notice some of these same trends, the only difference, I was not plumbing that long ago. :laughing:

Here is something to add to that equation. along with short term equipment.

Poor plumbing practices....With all the handyhack, contractors, homeowners, and "Plumbers" doing such poor work, they add to the problem. We want to complain about these guys taking our work, but all they are doing is delaying the need for a professional. A plumbing systems should last for many decades, but even with stuff like pex, the installations can be so poor, it cause premature failure.

Severe decline in trades professional....Many years ago I went searching for a new job, while searching I came across a website that talked about a growing need for plumbers. This is a multi-dimensional problem.

More plumber are leaving the trade(retirement) than are coming into the trade. This at one time was manageable, but now it is starting to show itself as a large and growing problem. 

Lack of quality replacements...Then we find ourselves hiring and training guys that leave the profession, or never amount to much. 

In summary: We are installing products that fail, others are doing such shoddy work, it cannot last. Then add to this a severe decline in the plumbing population, and where does this leave us?



Its actually exciting for me, I get to be right in the mix of the growing demand. We all know that prices are based on demand. :laughing:


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## user2090 (Sep 26, 2009)

PlumberJake said:


> I was talking to my dad yesterday about this. Before he went out for a repair on a 5 year old faucet, the customer suggested he just bring a new one. It seems that in the next decade or so, faucet repair will be rare. The junk they manufacture will just need to be replaced if it develops a leak.
> 
> Sent from my EVO 4G using Plumbing Zone



This is an opportunity for the cream to rise to the top. Don't be a company that puts in a faucet the one, needs repaired in 5 years, or two, is so cheap is should just be replaced. 

I believe that there are many consumers out there that want quality products. Many have been burned by the cheap stuff, and do not want to make that mistake again.


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## OldSchool (Jan 30, 2010)

Indie said:


> Its actually exciting for me, I get to be right in the mix of the growing demand. We all know that prices are based on demand. :laughing:


You got lots to look forward to Indie.... there will always be a demand for plumbing.... unless somebody discovers another way to go to washroom or bath yourself :laughing:

Same thing for heating or HWTs...... there will always be a need to heat your homes and the need for hot water....

All these things will never change


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## greenscoutII (Aug 27, 2008)

OldSchool & Indie,

I agree with what you guys are saying in these posts for the most part, but, from what I've been seeing. there doesn't seem to be a shortage of plumbers. In fact, there seems to be a surplus.

When the construction boom was in full swing there seemed to be a shortage, but now, there are tons of guys who are working part time, taken jobs in other fields, or are stuck in a cycle of work-layoff-work-layoff who would love to be back on the job full time.

I know every market is different, but what do you guys think about that?


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## user2090 (Sep 26, 2009)

Greenscout....there is no doubt that there is a surplus in the residential construction aspect, but keep in mind there is a lot more plumbing out there than just that aspect. 

I am speaking on the residential service/ remodel aspect, where the demand is growing, due to the reasons previously listed. We all know that not all plumbers are the same. Many new construction guys do not have the knack for service. 

When construction picks up a bit more the problem will become more apparent than ever before.


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## sigshooter71 (Dec 8, 2010)

There are also no such thing as 1 & 2 bathroom homes. They all have 3+. More **** to fix & replace. All I ever put in was cast iron hot water & steam boilers easy to repair. They are getting alot tougher to repair now more time consuming thats the downfall. Hard to charge the money when it takes longer to fix.


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## wundumguy (Apr 3, 2010)

Don't you charge by the hour for diagnostic and repair work?


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## Epox (Sep 19, 2010)

*Kohler/Bradley in use 36 plus years*

To voice in OS you are totally right, things are not made like they were, and to think how much more costly now then 50 or so years ago and what we're getting is crap. For the area I live in at least you are being generous with your time allowances. Water heaters made of late do good to get 7 years on a good day. 10 would be exceptional. Water faucets (delta for instance) maybe 5 to 7 but look like crap. Whats funny is when I entered the plumbing trade in "76" they were installing the Bradley faucets. They came with a 50 year warranty and the salesmen actually came through and would give us cardtridges for free. Well there are still many of these faucets still in service. They are the only faucet I'm aware of that was actually no moving parts that touched the water, which is why they do so well here. Kohler bought them out making them Kohler/Bradley but of course eventually sold the patents so we get the cartridges from our suppliers but forget who makes them. _I keep 2 K/B cartridges on the truck full time. _


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## Epox (Sep 19, 2010)

This is the cartridge for the Kohler/Bradley faucet.
On a different note, I think the reason our trade is dwindling in young persons entering the trade is because most of the kids of today really aren't interested in getting dirty, crawling under tight houses making repairs, rodding sewers etc. Plumbing a new house sure, no problem. Like the trowel trades it's badly in need of new people to carry it on. There's just too many easier ways to make a living.


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## stillaround (Mar 11, 2009)

greenscoutII said:


> OldSchool & Indie,
> 
> I agree with what you guys are saying in these posts for the most part, but, from what I've been seeing. there doesn't seem to be a shortage of plumbers. In fact, there seems to be a surplus.
> 
> ...


 Well, they get 2 years of unemployment....so expecting the surplus to assimilate into other fields might not happen as quick......those who cant cope will go out of biz or downsize and that will help. Some cant live on the unemployment and move.......all in all my gut reaction is that the surpluses will dwindle and strong will survive..................


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## bartnc37 (Feb 24, 2009)

mpsllc said:


> This is the cartridge for the Kohler/Bradley faucet.
> On a different note, I think the reason our trade is dwindling in young persons entering the trade is because most of the kids of today really aren't interested in getting dirty, crawling under tight houses making repairs, rodding sewers etc. Plumbing a new house sure, no problem. Like the trowel trades it's badly in need of new people to carry it on. There's just too many easier ways to make a living.


 Heck yes there are easier ways. My brother is a journeyman sparky does resi and commercial makes all of what I do. Can count on one hand the number of times in a month he comes home with dust on his pants much less greasy sewer sludge. 
Buddy of mine is a glazier, makes $37 bucks an hour caulking in panes of glass and guess how many times either one of those guys has gotten bounced out of bed at midnight to go on some emergency service call. Add to that due to the rates being charged, the H.O. breathing down your neck every day because your costing them $2 a minute, dragging WH and sewer machines out of craphole basements, and if you screw up even the slightest bit you can burn down or flood a house in the blink of an eye.:furious: All of this fun while getting constantly harrassed by the boss to go faster faster faster but if you have 1 callback in a hundred your bankrupting the company.:thumbup: Why wouldn't you wanna be a plumber


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## Epox (Sep 19, 2010)

bartnc37 said:


> Heck yes there are easier ways. My brother is a journeyman sparky does resi and commercial makes all of what I do. Can count on one hand the number of times in a month he comes home with dust on his pants much less greasy sewer sludge.
> Buddy of mine is a glazier, makes $37 bucks an hour caulking in panes of glass and guess how many times either one of those guys has gotten bounced out of bed at midnight to go on some emergency service call. Add to that due to the rates being charged, the H.O. breathing down your neck every day because your costing them $2 a minute, dragging WH and sewer machines out of craphole basements, and if you screw up even the slightest bit you can burn down or flood a house in the blink of an eye.:furious: All of this fun while getting constantly harrassed by the boss to go faster faster faster but if you have 1 callback in a hundred your bankrupting the company.:thumbup: Why wouldn't you wanna be a plumber


Yeah not to mention this last freeze we had when every home in town was busted to heck and had us all running. I just spent a day and a half under a house that had 14 copper freeze burst repairs when I was done. And I'm talking about 16" of crawl area with add on after add on so was foundations every where and no straight access to anything, wasn't fun.


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## Tommy plumber (Feb 19, 2010)

Years ago, plumbers would re-build ballcocks. People took pride in quality. Companies prided themselves in building a quality product.

One company I worked for years ago had an old school service manager. I was going on a service call and he was handing me the 1B1X ballcock repair kit...:laughing: You know the one with the black 'O' ring, (3) brass screws and the white plastic top for the ballcock? I was thinking to myself, "What is this for? I'll just replace the whole ballcock." But he was from an era that is slowly being replaced with the idea of just replace rather than repair.

Reminds me of a guy I know who likes to pass himself off as a plumber. You know the type, says he did new construction for years, he's been plumbing for this number of years, blah, blah, blah, he knows it all, etc. Well, this joker worked in service,(after being let go from other companies due to too many call-backs, I can relate all his mis-haps some other time for a good laugh), anyway, he was this particular company's best salesman out in the field. Want to know why? Because he couldn't repair anything, so he would just BS the customers with a line about needing to repalce everything. Faucets, toilets, W/H's, etc. The guy couldn't check the Ohms on a water heater element to save his life, so he would just replace the W/H.

Nowadays, the young guys coming up are not repair techs, they're replace techs.


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## Prscptn Plmbng (Feb 15, 2011)

Indie said:


> Greenscout....there is no doubt that there is a surplus in the residential construction aspect, but keep in mind there is a lot more plumbing out there than just that aspect.
> 
> I am speaking on the residential service/ remodel aspect, where the demand is growing, due to the reasons previously listed. We all know that not all plumbers are the same. Many new construction guys do not have the knack for service.
> 
> When construction picks up a bit more the problem will become more apparent than ever before.


There is a major surplus of "plumbers"here in san diego...but by the time you weed out the "butt cracks and turd chasers"the surplus is just a plus for us real plumbers...


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## Will (Jun 6, 2010)

There is diffidently a surplus of plumbers in the new construction field, if you can call them plumbers. The labor has ben run so low on residential work that you can't hire a Journeyman to do the work any more. That is way they came out with the "tradesman" license in Texas so you could get a guy with 2 year experience and have him be your lead guy, legally. Atleast for 1 and 2 story residential homes. Most people(not plumbers) doing house these days are one year removed from High School, and making 10 bucks an hour. I don't know about the rest of the country, but in Texas the owners are killing them selves with cheap labor by un competent workers( again not plumbers).

I think the law in Texas is a little different now, but the damage has already ben done.


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## suzie (Sep 1, 2010)

Perfect example is my house bought it ten years ago. existing WH was 18 years old when it went installed a commercial grade one purchased thru the shop the pan went out a little over three years defective and they quit making it 9 year old frig died after it was serviced biught a new LG have had it reparied Three frickin times in three years two year old dishwasher serviced. Just about everything is junk and if you get 10 years you're lucky. The days of the wife waiting for the harvest gold frig and range to poop out to get a kitchen remodel are gone


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## DIZ (Nov 17, 2010)

Tommy plumber said:


> The guy couldn't check the Ohms on a water heater element to save his life, so he would just replace the W/H.
> 
> Nowadays, the young guys coming up are not repair techs, they're replace techs.


I see this all the time. Sheesh! Think of how many perfectly fine WH end up in the tin bin at the scrappers.


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## Herk (Jun 12, 2008)

I think that the future of plumbing is like the future of everything - cheaper and cheaper wages and everything made for homeowners to repair because their wages are paltry, too. When Tom DeLay went down to the Marianas and saw people working behind razor wire for 16 hours a day and no pay he thought that was the finest economy he'd ever seen. 

Now we watch the last of the unions being busted and wonder why wages are so low while the CEOs are taking home hundreds of millions per year from the companies they ran into the ground. Does anyone really think we're going to pull out of this somehow?

You may be doing well wherever you live, but are you keeping an eye on the increasing prices of everything? Gas went up about 35 cents per gallon here in the last week. 

I hate to be gloom and doom, but it seems to me that every major effort in politics today is to bleed the remains of the middle class dry and send the money to the top.


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## Will (Jun 6, 2010)

Herk said:


> I think that the future of plumbing is like the future of everything - cheaper and cheaper wages and everything made for homeowners to repair because their wages are paltry, too. When Tom DeLay went down to the Marianas and saw people working behind razor wire for 16 hours a day and no pay he thought that was the finest economy he'd ever seen.
> 
> Now we watch the last of the unions being busted and wonder why wages are so low while the CEOs are taking home hundreds of millions per year from the companies they ran into the ground. Does anyone really think we're going to pull out of this somehow?
> 
> ...


Or send the money to the bottom feeders...........


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## U666A (Dec 11, 2010)

Herk said:


> I think that the future of plumbing is like the future of everything - cheaper and cheaper wages and everything made for homeowners to repair because their wages are paltry, too. When Tom DeLay went down to the Marianas and saw people working behind razor wire for 16 hours a day and no pay he thought that was the finest economy he'd ever seen.
> 
> Now we watch the last of the unions being busted and wonder why wages are so low while the CEOs are taking home hundreds of millions per year from the companies they ran into the ground. Does anyone really think we're going to pull out of this somehow?
> 
> ...


Very well put Herk, couldn't have said it better myself. I visualize myself struggling more and more over the next 20 or 30 years and I lay awake at night wondering what hardships my young girls are going to have to endure. What a scary world we live in and you're right, people are being delusional thinking that we are going to come back from this.


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## RealLivePlumber (Jun 22, 2008)

Will said:


> Or send the money to the bottom feeders...........


Or to china..............


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## Greenguy (Jan 22, 2011)

Just need to marry a Rich girl then it don't matter how much your making. 

That said I'm kinda glad some of these old hacks are retiring, worked for one when he would be in a house working on the furnace he would throw a cup of water under the hot water tank and tell the HO it's leaking. Worked for another guy that would get on an insurance job rip off the rating plates off all the gas appliances so no one else could easily bid on replacements. Same guy would dump water on the insulation of hot water tanks to say they are leaking.


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## Epox (Sep 19, 2010)

U.A.til.I.die said:


> Very well put Herk, couldn't have said it better myself. I visualize myself struggling more and more over the next 20 or 30 years and I lay awake at night wondering what hardships my young girls are going to have to endure. What a scary world we live in and you're right, people are being delusional thinking that we are going to come back from this.


20 or 30 years? Best add to that, or be well financed. I'm 53 and paying multiple thousands into SS here and knowing I wont see it for myself. Burns my hide. WTF am I to do. And yes, our kids and grandkids are screwed.


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## RealLivePlumber (Jun 22, 2008)

Greenguy said:


> Just need to marry a Rich girl then it don't matter how much your making.
> 
> That said I'm kinda glad some of these old hacks are retiring, worked for one when he would be in a house working on the furnace he would throw a cup of water under the hot water tank and tell the HO it's leaking. Worked for another guy that would get on an insurance job rip off the rating plates off all the gas appliances so no one else could easily bid on replacements. Same guy would dump water on the insulation of hot water tanks to say they are leaking.


 
Wait till judgement day rolls around for that scumbag......................:whistling2:


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## U666A (Dec 11, 2010)

Greenguy said:


> Just need to marry a Rich girl then it don't matter how much your making.
> 
> That said I'm kinda glad some of these old hacks are retiring, worked for one when he would be in a house working on the furnace he would throw a cup of water under the hot water tank and tell the HO it's leaking. Worked for another guy that would get on an insurance job rip off the rating plates off all the gas appliances so no one else could easily bid on replacements. Same guy would dump water on the insulation of hot water tanks to say they are leaking.


My uncle is an hvac guy and tells me that the oldest trick in the book is to disable the a/c during any furnace service call. Guarantees another service call come June. Phukers should be shot.


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## user2090 (Sep 26, 2009)

Look fellas its not the end of the world. The future is what we make it. 

Yes, in the U.S.A. we are struggling finacially, but the reason we are the great nation on this planet is, we can pull it back together. 

My wife and I are raising two children, 12 year old boy, and a 10 year old girl, what am I supposed to tell them? Give up, its not worth it. Are you freaking nuts. You know what I tell them? I tell them the truth, I say this country is going through a process of resetting itself, and if we play our cards right, we can be on the winning side of this. 

I teach my children to be work hard, and be better than most of the counterparts. This will set them apart, and will help them advance quicker in the careers when they get there. 


If I believed that it was not worth it, I would not have started my own business, and put it out on the line. 

How about instead of feeding this negativity, try doing something that will help improve your own situation. Do something positive.


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## wundumguy (Apr 3, 2010)

U.A.til.I.die said:


> My uncle is an hvac guy and tells me that the oldest trick in the book is to disable the a/c during any furnace service call. Guarantees another service call come June. Phukers should be shot.


:laughing:


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## Greenguy (Jan 22, 2011)

Indie said:


> Look fellas its not the end of the world. The future is what we make it.
> 
> Yes, in the U.S.A. we are struggling finacially, but the reason we are the great nation on this planet is, we can pull it back together.
> 
> ...


I tell the kids to stay in school get into mining; make fat money 80K+ straight outa school and get to travel...beats the trades.


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